Bama Signal: Grading Texas A&M — October 26, 2026

Bama Signal: Grading Texas A&M — October 26, 2026

Editorial cutoff: October 26, 2026, 1:15 p.m. CT. Public information only.

The Signal

Alabama's offense was average against Texas A&M's defense: 44% of its plays were successful (a play that keeps the offense on schedule), against 43% that an average offense gets against that defense (ESPN game page, our data tool). What decided the game was the other side. Texas A&M went no-huddle on 56 of its 61 plays, won the first quarter with a 65% success rate, then fell to 31% in the second quarter and 11% (1 of 9 plays) in the fourth.

That is the opposite of the pattern that hurt Alabama against Georgia and Tennessee, and it matters more than the run-game argument the shows spent their time on: Alabama passed at 9.2 yards a play and ran at 3.0, so "run the ball more" is not what the data shows.

What they're saying

• Cover Crimson and Locked On Bama both blamed the offense's design, mainly the run game and play-calling. The data partly backs it. Cover Crimson agreed the offense "hasn't been balanced" and that offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb "lost me a little bit more in this one" (Cover Crimson, Oct. 25). The run game did stall (2.4 yards a carry in ESPN's box score, which counts sacks; 3.0 yards a play on runs in our tool), so partly right. But the passing game, not the running game, was efficient (52% success), so "more runs" would not have fixed it.
• Locked On Bama called some early play-calling "baffling," and said it was fine until the fourth quarter, when "it started clicking" (Locked On Bama, Oct. 24). Saturday: Alabama's fourth-quarter plays succeeded 56% of the time, and its runs 45%, compared with 17% to 40% in the first three quarters. Backs it up.
• Locked On Bama praised the defense for giving up "nothing" over the last 23 minutes (Locked On Bama, Oct. 25). Saturday: Texas A&M's last full Q3 drive gained 21 yards on 7 plays and ended in a fumble, and its fourth-quarter plays averaged 0.4 yards. Backs it up.
• Two shows tied the win to the kicking and the turnovers, not the offense. Locked On Bama noted Alabama would have scored 37 had Conor Talty made both his kicks (Locked On Bama, Oct. 25); Cover Crimson called the fourth-down dead-ball snap that Texas A&M still ran "maybe the biggest football play of this game" (Cover Crimson, Oct. 24 postgame). Saturday: Alabama had two missed field goals (one from 42 yards) and Texas A&M turned the ball over three times to Alabama's one. Backs it up.

What the numbers say

All numbers are from the ESPN game page play-by-play (garbage time removed), via our data tool. Compared with what that defense allows other teams, Alabama's offense was +1 point of success rate, which is average.

• Where the points came from. The score was 17–17 at halftime. Alabama's first score was a 39-yard interception return for a touchdown by Dijon Lee Jr., and its touchdown at the start of the fourth quarter came after a Texas A&M fumble set up a four-play, 45-yard drive. Alabama led only after that touchdown (24–20).
• Passing carried the offense. Keelon Russell's passes averaged 9.2 yards on 33 dropbacks with 52% success and five explosive plays. Rico Scott (No. 7, receiver) caught six passes for 156 yards, per ESPN's recap, including 36-, 48- and 38-yard catches. Runs averaged 3.0 yards with 35% success on 26 carries, with Daniel Hill (9 carries), Trae'shawn Brown (7) and Russell (7) getting the work.
• First downs were the problem, again. Alabama's first-down success was 46% (13 of 28), well below the roughly 60% it had before this game. The typical first-down play gained 3 yards, so Alabama kept facing second-and-7 or longer. Runs on first down succeeded 4 of 13.
• Tempo flipped. Texas A&M gained 7.9 yards a play in the first quarter, then 4.9 and 4.7 in the next two quarters and 0.4 in the fourth. That is a fade, not the growth we saw against Georgia and Tennessee, but it is one game: Alabama's defense still allows about 6.6 yards a play no-huddle against 4.8 against a huddle for the season.
• The biggest swing (setting aside a +16.3 entry at the end-of-third-quarter boundary) was the interception return for a touchdown: +8.6 points of win probability for Alabama, per the tool's win-probability list. The largest against Alabama was Texas A&M's third-quarter 10-yard completion on a short left pass (−7.3).

Friday's prediction, graded

Final: right winner, margin 11 against our 13, so a Hit under the scale (within 7). Friday's edition made no halftime call (the halftime prediction started with the LSU game), so there is nothing to grade there. After that edition ran, the SEC's Friday-evening availability report came out; the Friday edition's call is the graded one, and we did not re-check that report for this recap.

Why we were close, or why we missed

First-down success — Miss. Why we said it: Alabama's first-down success was 58% for the season (Friday's edition; 60% in today's pull of the games before this one) and A&M's defense allowed 44%. What held: the thesis that long-yardage was the problem (8 plays on third-and-7 or longer, 2 converted). Where it broke: first-down runs, 4 of 13, 2.8 yards a play; the passes that made up for it (9 of 15 successful, 9.1 yards) could not be counted on to repeat.

The shape of the game — partly off, though not a graded call. We wrote "a field-position game early, with Alabama pulling away in the second half." It was 17–17 at the half and Alabama scored the last 14 points of the game; the pulling away came only in the fourth quarter, and 7 of Alabama's first-half points came from a defensive score.

What we'll change

We leaned on season run success (58%) and A&M's run-direction splits even though the Friday edition flagged a backup center and thin line. We will now start from the offensive line's availability and discount the run before quoting run rates, and we will count turnovers in the margin (A&M's three here were worth about two scores).

The Grades

• No show's score prediction was recorded in Friday's edition, so no show is graded.

Our record: 1–0, 1 Hit / 0 Close / 0 Miss on the final score (the first graded game).

What to watch

• LSU, Nov. 7. LSU's pass defense is third in the country in EPA per play allowed (expected points added per pass), per CollegeFootballData.com. Alabama's pass game (0.42 EPA per play, 18th) faces its toughest test.
• Alabama's pass protection and havoc rate: it ranks 110th in havoc allowed (tackles for loss, sacks, forced fumbles), and LSU's defense is fifth in havoc created.
• First-down success: Alabama was 46% on Saturday against about 60% before it.

Worth your time

• Alabama 31-20 Texas A&M, game recap — ESPN, Oct. 24. Box score and the six-catch, 156-yard Rico Scott line.
• Texas A&M vs Alabama game score: Crimson Tide shut Aggies down in fourth quarter for win — Yahoo Sports, Oct. 24. The fourth-quarter shutdown from the other side.

Source Trail

• Data: ESPN play-by-play and box scores via `tools/football/football.py`; Alabama 31, Texas A&M 20; ESPN recap.
• Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com (synced Oct. 25).
• Roster check: RollTide.com roster (Rico Scott, No. 7, confirmed on the page itself; the data tool's list lacks him).
• Podcasts (machine transcripts): Cover Crimson postgame and "What we learned" (Oct. 25–26), Locked On Bama (Oct. 24, Oct. 25), BamaOnLine Podcast postgame (Oct. 25).
• Friday edition graded: Bama Signal: Texas A&M Preview — October 23, 2026.
• Failed to load: ESPN box score page (no figures rendered); the SEC's Friday-evening availability report (not found).